3 Reasons Why Terry McLaurin will be a Top 12 WR this Season

As the 2024 NFL season rapidly approaches, fantasy football enthusiasts are scrambling to find the next breakout star. Nothing feels better than predicting the right sleeper to give teams an edge over their competition in pursuit of a championship. One name that should be at the top of your list is Terry McLaurin, the Washington Commanders’ standout wide receiver. Here’s why Terry McLaurin will be a fantasy top 12 WR in 2024.

McLaurin’s Fantasy History

4 Consecutive 1000 Yard Receiving Seasons

Terry Mclaurin became the first player in franchise history to have 4 consecutive 1000 yard receiving seasons for the Washington Commanders, formerly known as the Washington Football Team, formerly known as the Washington R%dskins. What makes this even more impressive is the fact that

“McLaurin has played with 10 different starting QBs since entering the league in 2019, but he still finds ways to produce,” says NFL.com’s Krissy Hetherington.

McLaurin’s 2023 Season:

Games Played	Tgt Share	Rec Tgts	Rec	Rec %	Rec TDs	YPT	YPR	Pos Rank
17	20.8%	132	79	59.8%	4	7.6	12.7	WR31

There was significant optimism heading into last season. The Commanders’ offense was supposed to effectively produce under Andy Reid’s protégé, Eric Bieniemy. Unfortunately, This optimism was fool’s gold. We learned if you ask a hammer to come up with a gameplan, they see every problem as a nail. Or in this case, a pass happy coordinator will always be a pass happy coordinator, regardless if he has the proper tools in place.

While Bienemy might have seen Sam Howell as the second coming of Patrick Mahomes, opposing defenses saw something else. They saw a subpar offensive line, and a quarterback with a tendency to hold onto the ball too long. On top of this, the Commander’s offense in 2023 were dead last in rushing attempts, while first in passing attempts. So it was extremely obvious to even the most casual sports fan that they were throwing on every play. Opposing defenses salivated when facing the Commanders. They were able to pin their ears back and put up career numbers against this predictable offense all season long.

The Commanders’ 2023 season ended just as predictably with a 4-13 record. This meant a 4th place finish in the NFC East. All of this resulted in releasing the coaching staff, and starting the process of a complete organizational overhaul.

So after this long disappointing historical diatribe, why should you believe this year will be any different for Terry McLaurin?

2024 Offseason Changes

Over the 2024 offseason several changes and developments occurred for the Washington Commanders. that impacted their roster and organizational structure:

1. Ownership Change: Dan Snyder, the previous owner, sold the team to a new ownership group led by Josh Harris. This change was a breath of fresh air to a very depleted fanbase desperate for a new direction.
2. Front Office Overhaul: The new ownership immediately got to work and started overhauling the front office, most notably hiring Adam Peters to take over as the new General Manager.
3. Coaching Staff Changes: Adam Peters was then given the ability to hire his own staff, and brought on Dan Quinn as Head Coach. Other notable hires included newly appointed offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury who most recently had success developing then young rookie QB Kyler Murray in Arizona.
4. Arrival of a New Quarterback: With a similar build and playing style, No 2 overall draft pick Jayden Daniels will be primed to succeed in a similar fashion as Kyler Murray under Kingsbury’s tutelage.

There is plenty of reason for optimism! These changes just might help turn the tide this franchise has so desperately wanted these past 2 decades.

So what does Terry McLaurin need to make the leap to a top 12 Fantasy WR this upcoming season?

Honestly, not as much as you’d think:

3 Reasons Why Terry McLaurin will be a Top 12 WR this Season

The Path to a top 12 WR finish is simple:

1. He needs to catch 11 more passes than last year: Terry has averaged a 22% target share over his first 5 seasons in the NFL. If he can receive 23.5% of the target share this season (which is just 11 more receptions on the season!) he is poised to be a top 12 WR.
2. He needs to gain 235 more receiving yards on the season: He has broken 1000 yards for the past 4 seasons with horrible quarterback play. If Jayden Daniels can even be a halfway competent QB this season, this number should be easily attainable.
3. He needs to catch 3 more TDs: This one might be the most difficult to achieve, but if he can build rapport with Jayden Daniels, and become his go to target, we should see an increase in his total TDs on the year.

My 2024 Projections for Terry McLaurin

Games Played	Tgt Share	Rec Tgts	Rec	Rec %	Rec TDs	YPT	YPR	Pos Rank
17	23.5%	139	90	65%	7	8.9	13.7	WR9

If this happens… Terry McLaurin would be WR9!

Conclusion:

Terry McLaurin’s combination of improved quarterback play, high target volume, and potential offensive scheme enhancements makes him a strong candidate to finish as a top 12 WR in 2024. With these factors aligning, McLaurin will be a key piece of the Commanders’ offensive strategy. For fantasy football managers and NFL fans, McLaurin’s potential breakout season is one to watch closely.

He is currently being drafted as the WR31. Where would you be comfortable drafting him?

Let me know in the comments!