Better than Hurts? Why Drake Maye Guarantees AJ Brown is a top 10 WR.

Welcome back to the Heater Dynasty Podcast! I am excited to kick off my NFL projection series, where I go division by division to break down the skill players who matter for your fantasy teams. I always start with the AFC East, and the timing couldn’t be better since we’ve finally seen how the AJ Brown trade to the Patriots shook out. Does this trade guarantee AJ Brown is a top 10 WR this season?

The goal of this series is to showcase the projections and rankings tool I’ve built. I created this to help you move away from depending on “expert” rankings and instead gain ownership over your own draft strategy by seeing exactly how production is allocated. You can find this tool on my Patreon or Etsy if you want to run these numbers for your own league.

Here is how I’m projecting the AFC East this year:

The Methodology: How I Build These Projections

My process starts with volume. I set the total number of plays I expect a team to run based on five years of historical data. My tool pulls real-time depth charts from ourlads.com, allowing me to dynamically assign carry splits and target shares to every player on the roster. I don’t stat for “disaster scenarios”—I stat for what a player’s ceiling looks like.

Buffalo Bills: The High-Octane Favorite

I see the Bills and Patriots as the two clear frontrunners in this division. For Buffalo, I’m projecting about 1,050 total plays with a balanced 50/50 split between passing and rushing.

• Josh Allen: He remains my overall QB1. I’ve got him at a 22% carry split, and I expect him to remain highly consistent with around 12 rushing touchdowns.
• DJ Moore: Now that he’s in Buffalo, I’m projecting him as the bonafide WR1 with a massive 21.5% target share. I have him ranked as my WR10 overall, and I think he’s going to be a steal in drafts.
• James Cook: He is the established “bellcow” back here, and I’ve given him a 56% carry split.
• Khalil Shakir: Unfortunately, I think he takes the biggest hit with Moore’s arrival, moving into a slot role as the second target earner.

New England Patriots: The Drake Maye & AJ Brown Era

The biggest move in the division was the AJ Brown trade. I’ve allocated him a 23% target share as the team’s clear alpha receiver.

• The QB Factor: I actually manually increased AJ Brown’s catch percentage because I believe Drake Maye is a better quarterback than Jalen Hurts and will provide him with more catchable targets. He will guarantee that outside of injury, AJ Brown is a top 10 WR in 2026.
• TreVeyon Henderson: Even though he’s listed as RB2 on some charts, I’m predicting he’ll be the lead back with a 42% carry split.
• Secondary Options: I have Romeo Doubs settled into a WR2 role and Hunter Henry as a reliable target, though I expect rookie Eli Raridan to eventually take over that tight end spot next year.

Miami Dolphins: The Devon Achane Show

Miami is in a rebuilding phase after moving on from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Because their receiving corps is currently so “flat,” I expect them to lean heavily on their backfield.

• Devon Achane: I am projecting “Christian McCaffrey numbers” for Achane. I’ve given him a 55% carry split and a 16% target share, making him my overall RB4.
• Malik Willis: I’ve slotted him as the starter, and since he has fewer elite targets, I expect him to scramble often, giving him a 23% carry split.

New York Jets: Lower Volume Skepticism

I’m projecting the Jets to run the fewest plays in the division (950) because I’m just not a huge fan of their offensive leader, Geno Smith.

• Breece Hall: He’s still the lead back with a 48% carry split. I have him as a high-end RB2 (RB14 overall).
• Garrett Wilson: He remains the clear “target hog” with a 23% share.
• Tight End Warning: I think Mason Taylor and Kenyan Sadiq are going to cannibalize each other’s production, making both very difficult to start with confidence in fantasy.

My Divisional Top Targets

• Best QB: Josh Allen (Overall QB1).
• Best RB: Devon Achane (Overall RB4).
• Best Value WR: DJ Moore (My WR10).
• Position to Avoid: Tight End. I have Hunter Henry as my TE29, and he’s the only one I’d even consider for a spot start.

I’ll be back next week to break down the NFC East! In the meantime, head over to my website to check out my full rankings and stats.