Fantasy Football Projections made easy | AFC West Player Forecasts & Draft Values

Welcome back to the Heater Dynasty Podcast! I’m your host, Eric Heater, and today we are diving deep into the third installment of our player projection series. We’ve been going team-by-team to break down every skilled player that matters for your fantasy roster, and today, the spotlight is on AFC West player forecasts.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty, I want to highlight the tool I’m using to generate these insights. I’ve developed a comprehensive Google Sheet that allows you to walk through the entire process of projecting every individual skill player on a team in under two hours. It’s a game-changer for anyone serious about winning their league, and you can grab it for just $20 on my Patreon or Etsy.

AFC West Overview: A Quarterback Powerhouse

The first thing that jumps out about the AFC West is the sheer talent at the signal-caller position. This division boasts three top-12 fantasy quarterbacks. While the Raiders’ situation is a bit split between veteran Kirk Cousins and rookie Fernando Mendoza, the rest of the division is elite.

On the ground, it’s a solid group of running backs, though Ashton Jeanty is the only one I currently project in the top 12. For wide receivers, the division is a bit thinner than usual, with Ladd McConkey coming in as my highest-ranked option at WR14. However, the tight end room is top-heavy with two absolute “rock stars” in Brock Bowers and Travis Kelce.

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Team-by-Team Breakdown

Denver Broncos: The Sean Payton Evolution

I’m projecting a slight regression in overall plays for Denver this year, but they will still be a productive unit.

• Bo Nix (QB8): I have him throwing for 26 touchdowns as he becomes more comfortable in this offense.
• The Backfield: I expect a shift toward the run. While I have JK Dobbins (RB39) as the lead back, his injury history is a concern. RJ Harvey (RB26) actually ranks higher for me because of his significant role in the passing game.
• Receiving Corps: The addition of Jaylen Waddle (WR14) changes everything. He’s the clear top dog now, which bumps Troy Franklin (WR52) and Courtland Sutton down the pecking order.

Kansas City Chiefs: Mahomes and the New-Look Run Game

While Patrick Mahomes is the best real-life QB, I have him as QB12 for fantasy because high-level real-world play doesn’t always correlate to fantasy dominance.

• Kenneth Walker (RB17): A huge offseason addition, Walker should thrive as the primary red-zone threat in this scheme.
• Reliable Targets: Travis Kelce (TE6) remains the focal point because of the uncertainty in the wide receiver room. Rashee Rice (WR27) and rookie Xavier Worthy (WR39) are the names to watch here.

LA Chargers: The Herbert Bounce-Back

With a bolstered offensive line and a new offensive scheme, I’m bullish on Justin Herbert (QB7), projecting 31 passing touchdowns.

• Omarion Hampton (RB15): He is set to be the bellcow for this offense.
• Ladd McConkey (WR15): I view him as the most talented player in this room and the top target for Herbert.
• Sleeper Alert: Quentin Johnston (WR29) is sneaking up my rankings as he improves his catch percentage.

Las Vegas Raiders: Gritty and Up-and-Coming

The Raiders might run the fewest plays in the division, but they have elite individual talent.

• Ashton Jeanty (RB10): Even with a slightly reduced workload compared to last year’s massive 72% carry split, he remains a high-efficiency workhorse.
• Brock Bowers (TE2): He finished as TE8 last year despite playing only 12 games. He is a certified fantasy starter.
• QB Situation: I expect Kirk Cousins to start the first nine games before handing the reins to Fernando Mendoza.

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Take Your Draft to the Next Level

Projections are the backbone of a winning fantasy season. If you want to see exactly how I arrived at these numbers—or if you want to input your own assumptions to see how they change the rankings—you need my Google Sheet tool.

Stop guessing and start projecting. You can find the tool on my Patreon or Etsy, and be sure to visit heaterdynasty.com for free rankings and more as the season approaches.

Next week, we’re moving on to the NFC West! Until then, keep grinding those projections.